The oil and gas prices surge in the post-COVID recovery period and, more substantially, due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, gave the perception that oil firms are unfairly profiting from high energy prices, or even worse, from war and bloodshed.
Neutrality is an inherent component of Swiss identity and origin; historically, neutrality has been critical to Switzerland's security and foreign policy. The Swiss foreign-policy stance of strict neutrality has become less applicable in the post-Cold War world order, forcing Switzerland to re-interpret its neutrality policy in light of the Ukrainian conflict.
As central banks appear to be committed to changing their mindset by transitioning from QE to QT, investors should be prepared to change their paradigm and assumptions about central banks' support. The risk is for some of the investors to metamorphose from QE-addicted Wolfs of Wall Street to QT-intolerant Chihuahuas of Bahnhofstrasse.
In 2021, we launched the Global Investment Opportunities (GIO) mandates based on our proprietary factor investing approach. The strategic investments based on the insightful prediction of a surge in inflation resulted in a strong absolute and relative performance for the year.
Severing economic relationships and inflicting economic pain on Russia makes sense in war but is very costly also for the countries imposing the sanctions. Mr Putin's invasion of Ukraine is unlikely to end soon, and we are not going to read an Instagram post from the Kremlin.
How can we learn from the future? What if we are all wrong? The quality of our decisions can be improved, and our forecasting skills can be trained in an uncertain world. The value of imagining alternative futures is in the process of questioning assumptions and common mental models, and in preparing for uncertain but conceivable futures.
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