History is replete with epic changes of heart. Last December, China stunned the world by announcing the exit from the zero-COVID policy, which had been in place since 2020, when Wuhan declared a full-scale lockdown and COVID was known as SARS-CoV-2. Households and businesses no longer should be worried about lockdowns, but the confidence of consumers and entrepreneurs is fragile and sentiment remains shaky. Hardly a surprise after three years of lockdowns.
The death toll from the 6 February earthquake disaster topped 41,000 in Turkey and 6'000 in Syria and the full scale of the earthquake disaster is still unfolding. The World Health Organization (WHO) called the Turkey-Syria earthquakes "Europe's worst natural disaster in a century", estimating that some 26 million people across both countries need humanitarian aid and immediate assistance.
Europe's gas and power concerns have been fading recently, driven by a fortuitous combination of a mild winter and lower demand for energy. This is good news. But the current gas prices are not low and Europe's gas supply remains fragile. Elevated energy prices are a significant contributor to inflation and a large drag on European growth for this year, at least.
King Charles and Queen Camilla were crowned in Westminster Abbey on May 6th, with a sumptuous ceremony that delighted the planetary watching crowd. Britons who were celebrating the bestowal of the crown upon Charles III with coronation quiche, scones and booze, paid 25 percent higher prices ...
Markets and economic developments in 2023 validated our investment approach, as we generated good absolute and risk-adjusted returns for our clients, whilst we learnt some investment lessons from the big surprises to our expectations.
Inflation broadly declined, central banks kept on hiking rates, the US economy surprised positively on the growth side, equity markets rallied and fixed income had a very positive year.
In the first quarter of 2024, inflation surprised on the upside, central banks changed narratives, the global economy surprised positively on the growth side, equity markets and commodities rallied and fixed income had a negative performance.
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