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mBaer Necessities

mBaer Necessities 04/25

mBaer Necessities 04/25

The violent repricing in April, from long-end Treasury selloffs to a dollar slide, signals something deeper than market noise. It points to a growing fragility at the core of U.S. financial credibility. What was once considered risk-free is now being repriced. The rise in long-term yields reflects not inflation fears or stronger growth, but rising concern over supply, trust, and structural imbalances. These are not the typical ripples of cyclical weakness. They signal a market reappraising the core assumptions behind America’s “risk-free” status.

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mBaer Necessities 03/25

mBaer Necessities 03/25

Imagine a world where the U.S. dollar is no longer the undisputed reserve currency. Where foreign governments, once eager to stockpile U.S. Treasuries, are instead forced to accept financial terms dictated by Washington. Where economic diplomacy is no longer a delicate balancing act but a game of hardball, played from the gilded halls of Mar-a-Lago. This, according to its proponents, is the future promised by the so-called Mar-A-Lago Accord, a radical restructuring of global trade and monetary relations, designed to tilt the playing field back in favor of the United States.

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mBaer Insights 02/25

mBaer Insights 02/25

February 2025 was an eventful month for financial markets, characterized by periods of strength and turbulence. The month began on a cautious note as markets reacted to escalating trade tensions, particularly the threat of new US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. However, a temporary extension for Canada and Mexico provided relief, fueling a short-lived rally that pushed the S&P 500 to an all-time high on February 19. As the month progressed, sentiment shifted towards risk aversion, with renewed tariff concerns and weaker US economic data weighing on equities, particularly technology stocks. Despite these headwinds, European equities remained resilient, supported by strong corporate earnings and fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, the move toward safe-haven assets boosted sovereign bonds and gold, offering investors a buffer against market volatility.

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mBaer Necessities 02/25

mBaer Necessities 02/25

Tariffs have been a cornerstone of international trade, used as tool for economic protection, political leverage, and revenue generation. While they can safeguard domestic industries, they also risk triggering retaliatory measures, raising consumer prices, and distorting global supply chains. The recent resurgence of tariffs under the Trump administration, particularly targeting China, Mexico, and Canada, has reignited debates on their efficacy and long-term consequences. Are tariffs a necessary shield against unfair trade practices, or do they inflict more harm than good?

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mBaer Insights 01/25

mBaer Insights 01/25

Global financial markets entered 2025 with remarkable strength, as equities and bonds broadly posted gains despite an increasingly complex macroeconomic backdrop. Investors navigated a month filled with political shifts, evolving monetary policy expectations, and sector-specific challenges, yet optimism remained intact. The return of President Trump to the White House, coupled with his aggressive trade policies, introduced fresh uncertainties, while the Federal Reserve’s pause on rate cuts prompted a reassessment of global liquidity conditions. Meanwhile, the rise of Chinese AI giant DeepSeek added another layer of complexity, challenging the dominance of US tech leaders and sparking the largest single-day valuation decline in market history.

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mBaer Necessities 07/24

mBaer Necessities 07/24

In Q224, inflation continued trending down prompting the start of the easing cycle by G10 central banks. The global economy surprised positively as growth has been robust so far. Financial market valuations have risen globally.

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