June marked a turning point, but not because risks disappeared, but rather because investors stopped fearing them. Equity markets surged to new highs, not in spite of tariffs, fiscal strain, and geopolitical shocks, but because those threats proved manageable. The "wall of worry" is still standing, but markets are sprinting up it. The S&P 500 rallied another +5.1%, closing the best first half since 2019. And the dollar continued its slide, marking its worst half-year performance since 1973. Beneath the volatility, the narrative shifted. Investors are beginning to look through the noise to a 2026 defined by looser policy, AI-driven productivity gains, and a rebalancing of global growth. June was less about resolution and more about revaluation. Risk appetite returned not because the macro turned clean, but because it turned more predictable.

The violent repricing in April, from long-end Treasury selloffs to a dollar slide, signals something deeper than market noise. It points to a growing fragility at the core of U.S. financial credibility. What was once considered risk-free is now being repriced. The rise in long-term yields reflects not inflation fears or stronger growth, but rising concern over supply, trust, and structural imbalances. These are not the typical ripples of cyclical weakness. They signal a market reappraising the core assumptions behind America’s “risk-free” status.

Imagine a world where the U.S. dollar is no longer the undisputed reserve currency. Where foreign governments, once eager to stockpile U.S. Treasuries, are instead forced to accept financial terms dictated by Washington. Where economic diplomacy is no longer a delicate balancing act but a game of hardball, played from the gilded halls of Mar-a-Lago. This, according to its proponents, is the future promised by the so-called Mar-A-Lago Accord, a radical restructuring of global trade and monetary relations, designed to tilt the playing field back in favor of the United States.